Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 100¢ · $505 held · ends Dec 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$504.68

Combined PnL

-$9.38

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$504.45

Total Shares505

Combined PnL+$2.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$12.1

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$129.71	$129.77	+$0.06	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99.9¢	$124.87	$124.88	+$0.01	51% 3701-3552 (7253)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$74.92	$74.93	+$0	47% 8377-9565 (17942)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.95	$34.95	-$0	61% 14883-9337 (24220)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$31.04	$31.63	+$0.58	32% 2587-5457 (8044)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	-$0	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$26.8	$24.98	+$0.51	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$23.04	$24.61	+$1.57	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$23.27	$23.27	-$0	42% 3807-5179 (8986)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.48	$5.48	-$0	39% 1067-1680 (2747)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$9.56	$0.18	-$9.37	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$2.73	26% 506-1406 (1912)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0	47% 2220-2477 (4697)

Lucerys

Invested

$129.71

Value

$129.77

PnL

+$0.06

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

haveagoodday

Invested

$124.87

Value

$124.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

3701-3552 (7253)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$74.92

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

8377-9565 (17942)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$34.95

Value

$34.95

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

14883-9337 (24220)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$31.04

Value

$31.63

PnL

+$0.58

Record

32%

2587-5457 (8044)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$26.8

Value

$24.98

PnL

+$0.51

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$1.57

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$23.27

Value

$23.27

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

3807-5179 (8986)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.48

Value

$5.48

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1067-1680 (2747)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.56

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$9.37

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.73

Record

26%

506-1406 (1912)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2220-2477 (4697)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.