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4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $341 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 44%
$340.53
-$127.19
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.9¢ | $154.84 | $154.84 | -$0 | 53% 7612-6705 (14317) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.28 | $84.28 | +$0 | 42% 1715-2341 (4056) |
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $69.94 | $69.94 | +$0 | 21% 18-66 (84) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 39% 346-547 (893) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $70.55 | $0.53 | -$70.02 | 42% 5253-7309 (12562) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $83.61 | $0.45 | -$61 | 40% 2689-4008 (6697) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $41.2 | $0.02 | +$6.41 | 38% 3881-6344 (10225) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $0.61 | $0 | -$0.61 | 16% 31-164 (195) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $25.31 | $0 | -$1.97 | 23% 816-2733 (3549) |
Invested
$154.84
Value
$154.84
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
7612-6705 (14317)
Invested
$84.28
Value
$84.28
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
1715-2341 (4056)
Invested
$69.94
Value
$69.94
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
18-66 (84)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
346-547 (893)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$70.55
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$70.02
Record
42%
5253-7309 (12562)
Invested
$83.61
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$61
Record
40%
2689-4008 (6697)
Invested
$41.2
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$6.41
Record
38%
3881-6344 (10225)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.61
Record
16%
31-164 (195)
Invested
$25.31
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.97
Record
23%
816-2733 (3549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.