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paddaaNoNoNo
ArmageddonRewardsBillyNoYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Paul Gibson win the next Huon Valley mayoral election?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 60%
Total Value
$1.5K
Combined PnL
$8.76
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$1.5K
Total Shares1,462
Combined PnL+$274.51
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,093
Combined PnL-$265.76
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
paddaa | Noavg 75¢ | $711.98 | $949.05 | +$237.07 | 57% 818-626 (1444) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 74.2¢ | $816.75 | $500.89 | +$45.4 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $23.6 | $12.46 | -$1.31 | 77% 11162-3417 (14579) |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 75¢ | $150 | $0.01 | -$6.65 | 56% 15274-11804 (27078) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $24.18 | — | -$24.18 | 42% 5204-7132 (12336) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $241.58 | — | -$241.58 | 53% 1116-998 (2114) |
paddaaInvested
$711.98
Value
$949.05
PnL
+$237.07
Record
57%
818-626 (1444)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeInvested
$816.75
Value
$500.89
PnL
+$45.4
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
EL
Elias.Thornwell<$100Invested
$23.6
Value
$12.46
PnL
-$1.31
Record
77%
11162-3417 (14579)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$150
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$6.65
Record
56%
15274-11804 (27078)
LI
lissartterCTR<$100Invested
$24.18
Value
—
PnL
-$24.18
Record
42%
5204-7132 (12336)
SN
SnapElectionAvoiderCTRInvested
$241.58
Value
—
PnL
-$241.58
Record
53%
1116-998 (2114)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2ef5e530...d06abf
Slug
will-paul-gibson-win-the-2026-huon-valley-mayoral-election