Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $298 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$297.67
-$20
59.8¢ → 54.5¢
-9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
144h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 58.6¢ | $147.69 | $141.23 | -$6.46 | 40% 3003-4412 (7415) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 63¢ | $100.01 | $88.9 | -$11.11 | — 8-9 (17) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $59.16 | $36.96 | -$0.96 | — 1-10 (11) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $23 | $22.4 | -$0.6 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $16.82 | $5.04 | -$0.58 | 23% 510-1692 (2202) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $3.42 | $3.14 | -$0.28 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
Invested
$147.69
Value
$141.23
PnL
-$6.46
Record
40%
3003-4412 (7415)
HaradwaithInvested
$100.01
Value
$88.9
PnL
-$11.11
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$59.16
Value
$36.96
PnL
-$0.96
Record
—
1-10 (11)
Invested
$23
Value
$22.4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$5.04
PnL
-$0.58
Record
23%
510-1692 (2202)
Invested
$3.42
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$0.28
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.