Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$9.95

Smart Money Entry

91.1¢ → 96.7¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,166

Combined PnL+$14.93

Yes5 traders

Total Value$263.03

Total Shares2,813

Combined PnL-$24.87

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

748h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 89¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$45.9	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 94.7¢	$381.03	$364.56	-$16.47	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$120.88	$202.89	-$16.94	66% 1146-578 (1724)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 95¢	$156.75	$149.57	-$7.18	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 95.7¢	$129.2	$122.38	-$6.82	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
probability<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$66.99	$66.17	-$0.82	41% 1485-2116 (3601)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$51.83	$51.6	-$0	15% 459-2699 (3158)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$26	$25.25	+$5.56	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yes	$22.93	$22.93	+$3.26	51% 250-245 (495)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$11.65	$11.77	+$0.12	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$11.51	$11.21	+$0.2	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$169.85	$10.09	-$15.64	49% 1867-1968 (3835)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$2.99	$1.87	-$1.12	53% 8200-7292 (15492)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,511.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$45.9

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$381.03

Value

$364.56

PnL

-$16.47

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.88

Value

$202.89

PnL

-$16.94

Record

66%

1146-578 (1724)

smallreceipt

Invested

$156.75

Value

$149.57

PnL

-$7.18

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

godblessme2026

Invested

$129.2

Value

$122.38

PnL

-$6.82

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

probability<$100

Invested

$66.99

Value

$66.17

PnL

-$0.82

Record

41%

1485-2116 (3601)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$51.83

Value

$51.6

PnL

-$0

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26

Value

$25.25

PnL

+$5.56

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.93

Value

$22.93

PnL

+$3.26

Record

51%

250-245 (495)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$11.65

Value

$11.77

PnL

+$0.12

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.51

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$169.85

Value

$10.09

PnL

-$15.64

Record

49%

1867-1968 (3835)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.99

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

748h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.