Will Patricia Bullrich win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $570 held · ends Oct 25, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Oct 25, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$569.92

Combined PnL

$65.05

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 96¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$151.19

Total Shares3,460

Combined PnL+$88.57

No10 traders

Total Value$418.73

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$23.52

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazarCTR	Yes	$121.76	$121.76	+$68.84	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$87.73	$84.12	-$3.61	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$84.49	$81.26	-$3.23	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$66.55	$64.1	-$2.45	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$59.73	$57.37	-$2.36	38% 3057-4942 (7999)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$59.58	$57.36	-$2.22	32% 440-926 (1366)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$39.69	$38.24	-$1.45	31% 3445-7743 (11188)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 96¢	$16.35	$16.28	-$0.07	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$5.31	$13.82	+$8.51	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
JO JordanMooneyCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$300.31	$12.16	+$9.27	36% 2007-3593 (5600)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$9.94	$9.56	-$0.38	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$7.7	$6.27	-$0.75	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$11.61	$4.17	-$7	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$3.39	$3.39	+$1.92	6% 14-231 (245)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.03	$0.07	+$0.04	55% 18-15 (33)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.76

Value

$121.76

PnL

+$68.84

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$87.73

Value

$84.12

PnL

-$3.61

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$84.49

Value

$81.26

PnL

-$3.23

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$66.55

Value

$64.1

PnL

-$2.45

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$59.73

Value

$57.37

PnL

-$2.36

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

akroll<$100

Invested

$59.58

Value

$57.36

PnL

-$2.22

Record

32%

440-926 (1366)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$39.69

Value

$38.24

PnL

-$1.45

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$16.35

Value

$16.28

PnL

-$0.07

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.31

Value

$13.82

PnL

+$8.51

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

JordanMooneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$300.31

Value

$12.16

PnL

+$9.27

Record

36%

2007-3593 (5600)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$9.56

PnL

-$0.38

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

$6.27

PnL

-$0.75

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$11.61

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$7

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$1.92

Record

14-231 (245)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

55%

18-15 (33)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

55h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.