Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 19

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Dec 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$505.4

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 98.7¢

+46% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,352

Combined PnL+$505.4

No1 trader

Total Value$0.82

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

909h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JSG3	Yesavg 77.6¢	$369.97	$470.57	+$100.6	— 0-6 (6)
GA Gaditima	Yesavg 94.4¢	$439.33	$459.51	+$20.18	48% 32-35 (67)
andy29	Yesavg 6.8¢	$20.86	$301.04	+$280.17	0% 0-25 (25)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Yesavg 97.6¢	$85.77	$86.71	+$0.93	— 3-5 (8)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.25	$8.29	+$8.04	0% 0-35 (35)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$9.71	$7.89	+$95.47	39% 179-277 (456)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 2.3¢	$0.82	$0.82	+$0	— 11-2 (13)

JSG3

Yes

Invested

$369.97

Value

$470.57

PnL

+$100.6

Record

—

0-6 (6)

Gaditima

Yes

Invested

$439.33

Value

$459.51

PnL

+$20.18

Record

48%

32-35 (67)

andy29

Yes

Invested

$20.86

Value

$301.04

PnL

+$280.17

Record

0-25 (25)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.77

Value

$86.71

PnL

+$0.93

Record

—

3-5 (8)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$8.29

PnL

+$8.04

Record

0-35 (35)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.71

Value

$7.89

PnL

+$95.47

Record

39%

179-277 (456)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0

Record

—

11-2 (13)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

909h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.