Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pat Gelsinger be the next CEO of NVIDIA?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $988 held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$988.04

Combined PnL

$876.55

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$850.72

Total Shares1,701

Combined PnL+$869.77

No3 traders

Total Value$137.09

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$6.78

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$8.81	$355.5	+$347.39	52% 1614-1484 (3098)
0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$6.55	$350.21	+$343.66	— 1-0 (1)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 50¢	$98.91	$121.37	+$22.46	40% 3231-4852 (8083)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$1.44	$77	+$75.56	43% 16-21 (37)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.38	$55.5	+$55.12	12% 34-257 (291)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.41	$12.73	-$12.69	63% 445-264 (709)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$45.62	$9	+$44.6	19% 815-3564 (4379)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.07	$3.5	+$3.43	35% 512-942 (1454)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.98	$3	-$2.98	47% 521-590 (1111)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$355.5

PnL

+$347.39

Record

52%

1614-1484 (3098)

0xb7de57721ee931290e90bc0c8a9f38855130b802CTR

Yes

Invested

$6.55

Value

$350.21

PnL

+$343.66

Record

—

1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$98.91

Value

$121.37

PnL

+$22.46

Record

40%

3231-4852 (8083)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.44

Value

$77

PnL

+$75.56

Record

43%

16-21 (37)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$55.12

Record

12%

34-257 (291)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$25.41

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$12.69

Record

63%

445-264 (709)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.62

Value

PnL

+$44.6

Record

19%

815-3564 (4379)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$3.43

Record

35%

512-942 (1454)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

PnL

-$2.98

Record

47%

521-590 (1111)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.