Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 15¢ · $28 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$28.03
-$0.8
Research grade
AvoidYes at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sardinianshepherd<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $22.04 | $26.72 | +$4.36 | 65% 934-508 (1442) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $0.79 | -$1.4 | 40% 23-35 (58) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 65.3¢ | $4.29 | $0.53 | -$3.77 | 58% 193-140 (333) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.