Will PARIVISION Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$1.2K
-$7.38
99.1¢ → 98.5¢
-1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
75h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.1¢ | $366.67 | $364.45 | -$2.22 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99¢ | $265.52 | $264.18 | -$1.34 | 52% 5288-4799 (10087) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.3¢ | $148.95 | $147.75 | -$1.2 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $146.54 | $145.65 | -$0.89 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $89.13 | $88.65 | -$0.48 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $50.28 | $50.12 | -$0.17 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $49.65 | $49.25 | -$0.4 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $49.55 | $49.25 | -$0.3 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $29.79 | $29.55 | -$0.24 | — 0-13 (13) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $5.76 | $5.71 | -$0.05 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.4 | $0.3 | -$0.1 | 40% 3001-4411 (7412) |
balthazarInvested
$366.67
Value
$364.45
PnL
-$2.22
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$265.52
Value
$264.18
PnL
-$1.34
Record
52%
5288-4799 (10087)
Invested
$148.95
Value
$147.75
PnL
-$1.2
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$146.54
Value
$145.65
PnL
-$0.89
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$89.13
Value
$88.65
PnL
-$0.48
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$50.28
Value
$50.12
PnL
-$0.17
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
Invested
$49.65
Value
$49.25
PnL
-$0.4
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$49.55
Value
$49.25
PnL
-$0.3
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$29.79
Value
$29.55
PnL
-$0.24
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.76
Value
$5.71
PnL
-$0.05
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
40%
3001-4411 (7412)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.