Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 33¢ · $580 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$580.42

Combined PnL

-$124.68

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 33.1¢

-56% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$428.5

Total Shares641

Combined PnL+$67.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$151.91

Total Shares458

Combined PnL-$191.92

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

368h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 72¢	$158.01	$146.71	-$11.29	68% 47-22 (69)
MU muddyrcCTR	Yesavg 74.8¢	$299.2	$132.6	-$166.6	—
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$85.56	$80.22	-$5.34	— 2-0 (2)
Anjun<$100	Noavg 21.5¢	$23.65	$73.53	+$49.88	— 1-0 (1)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 3.9¢	$2.59	$44.43	+$41.84	— 2-16 (18)
HI hithitfar<$100	Noavg 77.7¢	$65.22	$43.6	-$7.1	—
balthazar<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$40.75	$40.01	-$0.74	56% 47-37 (84)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 76.6¢	$44.64	$19.31	-$25.32	— 1-0 (1)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$158.01

Value

$146.71

PnL

-$11.29

Record

68%

47-22 (69)

muddyrcCTR

Yes

Invested

$299.2

Value

$132.6

PnL

-$166.6

Record

—

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$85.56

Value

$80.22

PnL

-$5.34

Record

—

2-0 (2)

Anjun<$100

Invested

$23.65

Value

$73.53

PnL

+$49.88

Record

—

1-0 (1)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$2.59

Value

$44.43

PnL

+$41.84

Record

—

2-16 (18)

hithitfar<$100

Invested

$65.22

Value

$43.6

PnL

-$7.1

Record

—

balthazar<$100

Invested

$40.75

Value

$40.01

PnL

-$0.74

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.64

Value

$19.31

PnL

-$25.32

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

368h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.7%

33.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$179.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

279.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.