Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Pablo Lopez win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.38

Combined PnL

-$32.99

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$1.38

Total Shares2,754

Combined PnL-$32.99

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.35	$0.35	-$10.38	45% 9808-11964 (21772)
andy29CTR<$100	Yes	$0.3	$0.3	-$8.81	45% 847-1024 (1871)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$2.63	$0.2	-$2.43	28% 797-2091 (2888)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.29	$0.1	-$2.96	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$220.23	$0.1	-$2.16	50% 2630-2578 (5208)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.37	$0.09	-$0.27	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.5	$0.06	-$2.44	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$0.06	-$1.79	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$0.05	$0.05	+$0	44% 13945-17925 (31870)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.43	$0.05	-$1.38	47% 4175-4797 (8972)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.37	34% 2142-4117 (6259)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	+$0	36% 6093-11041 (17134)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$10.38

Record

45%

9808-11964 (21772)

andy29CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$8.81

Record

45%

847-1024 (1871)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$2.43

Record

28%

797-2091 (2888)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.96

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$220.23

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.16

Record

50%

2630-2578 (5208)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.27

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.44

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.79

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

13945-17925 (31870)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.38

Record

47%

4175-4797 (8972)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.37

Record

34%

2142-4117 (6259)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.