Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 86¢ · $653 held · ends Feb 8, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
1 arb excluded
$653.46
$209.52
60.9¢ → 85.5¢
+41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 perfectnostalgia | Yesavg 67.6¢ | $328.99 | $418.34 | +$89.35 | — 0-4 (4) |
E4 e46m3ARB<$100 | Noavg 16.5¢ | $36.85 | $83.86 | +$47.02 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 16.5¢ | $36.48 | $54.16 | +$17.68 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.36 | $29.7 | +$29.34 | |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.3¢ | $56.39 | $55.99 | -$0.4 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $12.78 | $44.65 | +$97.26 | 37% 3468-5986 (9454) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.2¢ | $24.2 | $20.35 | +$14.94 | 47% 4825-5517 (10342) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $14.94 | $15.91 | +$0.97 | 17% 94-450 (544) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $22.59 | $6.1 | +$6.45 | 40% 3254-4905 (8159) |
FI firegold<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $6 | +$0.1 | — 1-4 (5) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $1.4 | $2.25 | +$0.85 | 30% 2961-6990 (9951) |
perfectnostalgiaInvested
$328.99
Value
$418.34
PnL
+$89.35
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Invested
$36.85
Value
$83.86
PnL
+$47.02
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.39
Value
$55.99
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.78
Value
$44.65
PnL
+$97.26
Record
37%
3468-5986 (9454)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$24.2
Value
$20.35
PnL
+$14.94
Record
47%
4825-5517 (10342)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$15.91
PnL
+$0.97
Record
17%
94-450 (544)
Invested
$22.59
Value
$6.1
PnL
+$6.45
Record
40%
3254-4905 (8159)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
—
1-4 (5)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0.85
Record
30%
2961-6990 (9951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.