Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$42.99
64.5¢ → 77.5¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA wan123 | Noavg 69¢ | $671.34 | $632.42 | -$38.92 | 39% 195-299 (494) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $858.24 | $598.92 | -$41.34 | 25% 283-869 (1152) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.8¢ | $429.82 | $446.2 | +$14.16 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $191.04 | $152.73 | -$55.5 | |
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j | Noavg 56.5¢ | $356 | $422.47 | +$88.53 | 64% 82-46 (128) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $134.48 | $121.66 | -$12.82 | 36% 14918-27049 (41967) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 69.3¢ | $224.63 | $50.82 | -$6.94 | 42% 5200-7124 (12324) |
 paddaa | Noavg 69.7¢ | $200 | $48.05 | +$13.13 | 57% 817-625 (1442) |
Invested
$671.34
Value
$632.42
PnL
-$38.92
Record
39%
195-299 (494)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$858.24
Value
$598.92
PnL
-$41.34
Record
25%
283-869 (1152)
Both legs:
Invested
$356
Value
$422.47
PnL
+$88.53
Record
64%
82-46 (128)
Invested
$134.48
Value
$121.66
PnL
-$12.82
Record
36%
14918-27049 (41967)
Invested
$224.63
Value
$50.82
PnL
-$6.94
Record
42%
5200-7124 (12324)
paddaaInvested
$200
Value
$48.05
PnL
+$13.13
Record
57%
817-625 (1442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.