Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 27¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$133.29

Smart Money Entry

21.5¢ → 27¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,577

Combined PnL+$140.52

No3 traders

Total Value$290.16

Total Shares404

Combined PnL-$7.23

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe312101A6EA5c00821B74e2855c2674147B2e0b2-1730831637679CTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$798.11	$833.04	+$34.93	27% 8-22 (30)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 25.4¢	$288.63	$323.69	+$35.06	53% 6325-5539 (11864)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$907.36	$279.83	+$80.68	36% 14842-26964 (41806)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.2¢	$173.57	$200.09	-$59.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$109.51	$79.75	+$140.25
2B9SCTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$71.53	$155.12	+$70.53	18% 3781-17071 (20852)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 74.8¢	$139.75	$130.75	-$9	65% 484-260 (744)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 72¢	$84.2	$85.41	+$1.21	32% 4338-9328 (13666)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$73.44	$74	+$0.56	45% 1821-2263 (4084)

0xe312101A6EA5c00821B74e2855c2674147B2e0b2-1730831637679CTR

Yes

Invested

$798.11

Value

$833.04

PnL

+$34.93

Record

27%

8-22 (30)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$288.63

Value

$323.69

PnL

+$35.06

Record

53%

6325-5539 (11864)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$907.36

Value

$279.83

PnL

+$80.68

Record

36%

14842-26964 (41806)

Both legs:

No$173.5764.2¢-$59.57

Yes$109.5122¢+$140.25

2B9SCTR

Yes

Invested

$71.53

Value

$155.12

PnL

+$70.53

Record

18%

3781-17071 (20852)

melonmanm

Invested

$139.75

Value

$130.75

PnL

-$9

Record

65%

484-260 (744)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$84.2

Value

$85.41

PnL

+$1.21

Record

32%

4338-9328 (13666)

123987456<$100

Invested

$73.44

Value

$74

PnL

+$0.56

Record

45%

1821-2263 (4084)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.