Will Otzma win 4-5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$214
$1.81
81.3¢ → 97.5¢
+20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 75.4¢ | $59.34 | $71.64 | +$12.31 | 46% 2735-3273 (6008) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 79.2¢ | $104.25 | $67.27 | +$3.02 | 35% 14716-26896 (41612) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $26.68 | $26.39 | -$0.29 | 52% 4908-4507 (9415) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $20.36 | $20 | -$0.29 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $17.39 | $17.26 | -$0.13 | 32% 4325-9298 (13623) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $19.7 | $10.95 | -$8.74 | 18% 3780-17066 (20846) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.3¢ | $6.8 | $0.3 | -$4.06 | 77% 11126-3391 (14517) |
Invested
$59.34
Value
$71.64
PnL
+$12.31
Record
46%
2735-3273 (6008)
Invested
$104.25
Value
$67.27
PnL
+$3.02
Record
35%
14716-26896 (41612)
Invested
$26.68
Value
$26.39
PnL
-$0.29
Record
52%
4908-4507 (9415)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.36
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.29
Record
29%
279-667 (946)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$17.26
PnL
-$0.13
Record
32%
4325-9298 (13623)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$19.7
Value
$10.95
PnL
-$8.74
Record
18%
3780-17066 (20846)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$4.06
Record
77%
11126-3391 (14517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.