Will Orna Barbivai be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 100¢ · $470 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$469.72
-$1.47
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $130.56 | $130.04 | -$0.52 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $82.45 | $82.27 | -$0.19 | 27% 104-283 (387) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $81.22 | $80.89 | -$0.33 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.75 | -$0.2 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.88 | $39.82 | -$0.06 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.85 | -$0.12 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.9 | -$0.04 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.12 | $15.09 | -$0.03 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $13.97 | $13.93 | -$0.04 | 79% 375-99 (474) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $7.96 | -$0.02 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.15 | $0.22 | +$0.07 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
Invested
$130.56
Value
$130.04
PnL
-$0.52
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$82.45
Value
$82.27
PnL
-$0.19
Record
27%
104-283 (387)
Invested
$81.22
Value
$80.89
PnL
-$0.33
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.88
Value
$39.82
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.12
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$15.12
Value
$15.09
PnL
-$0.03
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$13.97
Value
$13.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
375-99 (474)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.96
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0.22
PnL
+$0.07
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.