Will OpenRouter process less than 200T tokens the week of November 9?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 82¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$86.01
$5.42
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $25.4 | $31 | +$5.61 | 62% 1321-793 (2114) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $17.37 | $16.98 | -$0.38 | 53% 29-26 (55) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $15.84 | $16.9 | +$1.06 | 41% 3102-4461 (7563) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $17.1 | $16.9 | -$0.2 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $4.89 | $4.23 | -$0.67 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
Invested
$25.4
Value
$31
PnL
+$5.61
Record
62%
1321-793 (2114)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$17.37
Value
$16.98
PnL
-$0.38
Record
53%
29-26 (55)
Invested
$15.84
Value
$16.9
PnL
+$1.06
Record
41%
3102-4461 (7563)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$16.9
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$0.67
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.