Will OpenRouter process between 725T and 775T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $547 held · ends Nov 23
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$546.9
$73.73
83¢ → 86.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $448.33 | $286.69 | +$112.26 | 36% 16083-28096 (44179) |
ME merod | Noavg 92¢ | $186.76 | $119.77 | -$66.99 | 51% 2516-2396 (4912) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $36.75 | $51.15 | +$14.4 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $48.15 | $43 | -$1.29 | 18% 366-1654 (2020) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $9.07 | $25.83 | +$16.76 | 32% 4498-9643 (14141) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $21.86 | $20.46 | -$1.4 | 61% 21355-13647 (35002) |
Invested
$448.33
Value
$286.69
PnL
+$112.26
Record
36%
16083-28096 (44179)
Invested
$186.76
Value
$119.77
PnL
-$66.99
Record
51%
2516-2396 (4912)
2B9S<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
$51.15
PnL
+$14.4
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$48.15
Value
$43
PnL
-$1.29
Record
18%
366-1654 (2020)
Invested
$9.07
Value
$25.83
PnL
+$16.76
Record
32%
4498-9643 (14141)
balthazar<$100Invested
$21.86
Value
$20.46
PnL
-$1.4
Record
61%
21355-13647 (35002)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.