Will OpenRouter process between 220T and 230T tokens the week of November 9?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (18%) · No at 100¢ · $542 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 18%

Total Value

$541.57

Combined PnL

-$81.81

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$517.83

Total Shares518

Combined PnL+$48.46

Yes9 traders

Total Value$23.73

Total Shares765

Combined PnL-$130.27

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana	Noavg 90.2¢	$450.92	$499.48	+$48.56	61% 17-11 (28)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$70.92	$21.43	-$29.49	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$92.09	$18.35	-$0.1	60% 1470-973 (2443)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$63.7	$0.97	-$46.74	42% 5249-7280 (12529)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.5¢	$11.08	$0.47	-$10.61	40% 280-413 (693)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$18.75	$0.37	-$18.37	40% 2685-4008 (6693)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$9	$0.18	-$8.82	31% 1134-2479 (3613)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$42.5	$0.12	-$11.74	35% 3944-7368 (11312)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$10.17	$0.09	-$3.4	16% 31-164 (195)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.02	$0.06	-$3.46	29% 343-823 (1166)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$26.69	$0.04	+$2.35	53% 7546-6651 (14197)

Hannah-Montana

Invested

$450.92

Value

$499.48

PnL

+$48.56

Record

61%

17-11 (28)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.92

Value

$21.43

PnL

-$29.49

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$92.09

Value

$18.35

PnL

-$0.1

Record

60%

1470-973 (2443)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.7

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$46.74

Record

42%

5249-7280 (12529)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.08

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$10.61

Record

40%

280-413 (693)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.75

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$18.37

Record

40%

2685-4008 (6693)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$8.82

Record

31%

1134-2479 (3613)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.5

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$11.74

Record

35%

3944-7368 (11312)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.17

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$3.4

Record

16%

31-164 (195)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.46

Record

29%

343-823 (1166)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.69

Value

$0.04

PnL

+$2.35

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.