Will OpenRouter process between 210T and 220T tokens the week of November 9?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$113.48

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 97.2¢

+13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,664

Combined PnL+$158.75

No4 traders

Total Value$20.06

Total Shares520

Combined PnL-$45.27

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana	Yesavg 93.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$33.03	61% 17-11 (28)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 52.2¢	$61.15	$113.83	+$52.68	40% 279-413 (692)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$26.53	$70.69	+$57.77	60% 1470-973 (2443)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.02	$19.3	+$15.28	29% 339-813 (1152)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 38.5¢	$562.76	$11.48	-$29.11	38% 3837-6288 (10125)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$53.41	$7.28	-$6.12	26% 55-157 (212)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$9	$1	-$8	36% 17-30 (47)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$21.58	$0.3	-$2.04	53% 7542-6645 (14187)

Hannah-Montana

Yes

Invested

$1,428.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$33.03

Record

61%

17-11 (28)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$61.15

Value

$113.83

PnL

+$52.68

Record

40%

279-413 (692)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.53

Value

$70.69

PnL

+$57.77

Record

60%

1470-973 (2443)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$19.3

PnL

+$15.28

Record

29%

339-813 (1152)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$562.76

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$29.11

Record

38%

3837-6288 (10125)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Invested

$53.41

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$6.12

Record

26%

55-157 (212)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$8

Record

36%

17-30 (47)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$21.58

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$2.04

Record

53%

7542-6645 (14187)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

92h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.