Will OpenRouter process between 200T and 210T tokens the week of November 9?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 91¢ · $465 held · ends Nov 16

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$464.83

Combined PnL

$6.86

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 91¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$402.07

Total Shares422

Combined PnL+$43.56

Yes5 traders

Total Value$62.76

Total Shares464

Combined PnL-$36.69

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana	Noavg 85.9¢	$372.92	$261.47	+$9.22	61% 17-11 (28)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 73¢	$365.55	$85.85	+$31.57	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.2¢	$65.18	$41.11	-$24.07	60% 1466-967 (2433)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 91¢	$36.4	$36.4	+$0	42% 1694-2332 (4026)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 77¢	$15.58	$18.35	+$2.77	36% 17-30 (47)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$23.73	$14.02	-$9.71	41% 276-405 (681)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$7.67	$3.9	-$3.77	43% 1132-1504 (2636)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$17.75	$2.8	+$0.25	35% 3905-7251 (11156)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$33.27	$0.94	+$0.6	53% 7468-6589 (14057)

Hannah-Montana

Invested

$372.92

Value

$261.47

PnL

+$9.22

Record

61%

17-11 (28)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$365.55

Value

$85.85

PnL

+$31.57

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.18

Value

$41.11

PnL

-$24.07

Record

60%

1466-967 (2433)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$36.4

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

1694-2332 (4026)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$15.58

Value

$18.35

PnL

+$2.77

Record

36%

17-30 (47)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.73

Value

$14.02

PnL

-$9.71

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.67

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$3.77

Record

43%

1132-1504 (2636)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.75

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.25

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.27

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

87h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.