Will OpenRouter process between 195T and 205T tokens the week of October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 53¢ · $67 held · ends Nov 2

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$67.37

Combined PnL

$29.64

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$38.12

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$18.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$29.25

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$11.52

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$17.41	$19.89	+$2.48	68% 209-100 (309)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$5.96	$19.85	+$10.52	— 7-2 (9)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 61.5¢	$363.97	$18.23	+$15.64	36% 16052-28068 (44120)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$8.4	$9.4	+$1	53% 6687-5886 (12573)

Hannah-Montana<$100

Invested

$17.41

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$2.48

Record

68%

209-100 (309)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.96

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$10.52

Record

—

7-2 (9)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$363.97

Value

$18.23

PnL

+$15.64

Record

36%

16052-28068 (44120)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

6687-5886 (12573)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.