Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will OpenRouter process 230T or more tokens the week of November 9?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $70 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$70.2

Combined PnL

-$150.57

Smart Money Entry

17.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$69.37

Total Shares69

Combined PnL+$2.56

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.83

Total Shares818

Combined PnL-$153.13

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$39.96	$39.98	+$0.02	39% 341-544 (885)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$26.85	$29.39	+$2.54	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$65.5	$0.25	-$49.26	42% 5249-7280 (12529)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$42.7	$0.21	-$42.49	38% 3843-6310 (10153)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$4.91	$0.12	-$4.79	40% 280-413 (693)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$18.75	$0.09	-$18.65	40% 2685-4008 (6693)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$15	$0.08	-$14.93	31% 1134-2479 (3613)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$34.58	$0.03	-$14.37	35% 3944-7368 (11312)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.67	$0.02	-$4.64	43% 1137-1513 (2650)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.02	$0.02	-$4	29% 343-823 (1166)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

39%

341-544 (885)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$26.85

Value

$29.39

PnL

+$2.54

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.5

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$49.26

Record

42%

5249-7280 (12529)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.7

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$42.49

Record

38%

3843-6310 (10153)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.91

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$4.79

Record

40%

280-413 (693)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.75

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$18.65

Record

40%

2685-4008 (6693)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$14.93

Record

31%

1134-2479 (3613)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.58

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$14.37

Record

35%

3944-7368 (11312)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.67

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.64

Record

43%

1137-1513 (2650)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4

Record

29%

343-823 (1166)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

81h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.