Will OpenRouter process 205T or more tokens the week of November 2?

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 85¢ · $920 held · ends Nov 9

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$919.75

Combined PnL

-$99.7

Smart Money Entry

71.5¢ → 84.5¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$635.14

Total Shares706

Combined PnL+$13.32

No12 traders

Total Value$284.62

Total Shares835

Combined PnL-$113.02

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hannah-Montana	Yesavg 72¢	$564.48	$590.81	+$26.33	68% 217-102 (319)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 69.6¢	$279.22	$184.51	-$19.57	14% 461-2758 (3219)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 58.6¢	$273.61	$32.31	-$63.12	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 14.3¢	$20.33	$20.25	-$0.08	59% 3713-2582 (6295)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$8.2	$17.5	+$9.3	27% 6849-18792 (25641)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 84.5¢	$17.23	$17.22	-$0.01	53% 22650-19900 (42550)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$52.19	$14	+$8.64	20% 2597-10290 (12887)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$42.61	$10.52	+$12.83	50% 9800-9775 (19575)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$61.41	$9.6	-$22.3	25% 1720-5244 (6964)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$28.74	$7.65	-$21.56	17% 1249-5908 (7157)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 54¢	$24.3	$6.75	-$17.55	18% 345-1584 (1929)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$15.61	$4.5	-$8.84	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$1.8	$1.5	-$0.3	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$6.88	$1.2	-$3.03	50% 659-658 (1317)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.92	$0.77	-$0.15	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$0.94	$0.65	-$0.29	39% 1055-1660 (2715)

Hannah-Montana

Yes

Invested

$564.48

Value

$590.81

PnL

+$26.33

Record

68%

217-102 (319)

IstarothCTR

Invested

$279.22

Value

$184.51

PnL

-$19.57

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$273.61

Value

$32.31

PnL

-$63.12

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$20.33

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.08

Record

59%

3713-2582 (6295)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.2

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$9.3

Record

27%

6849-18792 (25641)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.23

Value

$17.22

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

22650-19900 (42550)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$52.19

Value

$14

PnL

+$8.64

Record

20%

2597-10290 (12887)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$42.61

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$12.83

Record

50%

9800-9775 (19575)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.41

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$22.3

Record

25%

1720-5244 (6964)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$28.74

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$21.56

Record

17%

1249-5908 (7157)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$24.3

Value

$6.75

PnL

-$17.55

Record

18%

345-1584 (1929)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$15.61

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$8.84

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$6.88

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$3.03

Record

50%

659-658 (1317)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.15

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.94

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$0.29

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 16 top traders (25%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 79% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.