Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$210.63

Smart Money Entry

90.7¢ → 96.2¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,428

Combined PnL+$210.43

Yes4 traders

Total Value$17.01

Total Shares577

Combined PnL+$0.21

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 90.4¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$114.49	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
balthazar	Noavg 84.4¢	$586.28	$674.32	+$88.04	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 93.7¢	$591.02	$314.02	+$3.33	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
ME merod	Noavg 96¢	$234.24	$236.8	+$2.56	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 96.9¢	$208.37	$208.66	+$0.29	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
Lucerys	Noavg 97.4¢	$120.41	$119.97	-$0.43	77% 12654-3874 (16528)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$48.17	$48.53	+$0.36	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$38.96	$38.82	-$0.14	31% 3522-7876 (11398)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$14.61	$14.56	-$0.05	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$8.51	$10.5	+$1.99	41% 2249-3267 (5516)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$15.25	$6.64	+$3.4	40% 291-436 (727)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$4.2	$5.9	+$1.7	44% 2206-2850 (5056)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$10.08	$3.42	-$4.81	40% 9706-14609 (24315)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$58.43	$1.04	-$0.08	77% 12390-3803 (16193)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,558.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$114.49

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

balthazar

Invested

$586.28

Value

$674.32

PnL

+$88.04

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$591.02

Value

$314.02

PnL

+$3.33

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

merod

Invested

$234.24

Value

$236.8

PnL

+$2.56

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

smallreceipt

Invested

$208.37

Value

$208.66

PnL

+$0.29

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

Lucerys

Invested

$120.41

Value

$119.97

PnL

-$0.43

Record

77%

12654-3874 (16528)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$48.17

Value

$48.53

PnL

+$0.36

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$38.96

Value

$38.82

PnL

-$0.14

Record

31%

3522-7876 (11398)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$14.61

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$8.51

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$1.99

Record

41%

2249-3267 (5516)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.25

Value

$6.64

PnL

+$3.4

Record

40%

291-436 (727)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$1.7

Record

44%

2206-2850 (5056)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.08

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$4.81

Record

40%

9706-14609 (24315)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.43

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.08

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

702h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 77% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.