Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $49 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$49.27
$-1.1K
14.7¢ → 0.6¢
-96% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
145 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU BurstedBubbleCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.1K | $44.28 | $-1.1K | — 4-5 (9) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $17.83 | $1.55 | -$16.28 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $1.28 | $1.38 | +$0.1 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $0 | $0.37 | +$0.37 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$1,110.26
Value
$44.28
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
—
4-5 (9)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$16.28
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
Invested
$1.28
Value
$1.38
PnL
+$0.1
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.37
PnL
+$0.37
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.