Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.4K
-$1.12
84.7¢ → 84.3¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3.69 | — 7-12 (19) |
SU SulkingCrypto | Noavg 83.6¢ | $151.25 | $152.73 | +$1.48 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
WA WarriorH | Noavg 83.8¢ | $183.4 | $102.5 | -$0.67 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $41.25 | $41.75 | +$0.49 | 66% 4092-2111 (6203) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 82.1¢ | $25.52 | $26.48 | +$0.96 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $10.08 | $10.38 | +$0.3 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
Invested
$1,116.96
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$3.69
Record
—
7-12 (19)
Invested
$151.25
Value
$152.73
PnL
+$1.48
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Invested
$183.4
Value
$102.5
PnL
-$0.67
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$41.25
Value
$41.75
PnL
+$0.49
Record
66%
4092-2111 (6203)
Invested
$25.52
Value
$26.48
PnL
+$0.96
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.