Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.0K
-$9.16
89.1¢ → 84.2¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-43 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Noavg 89.1¢ | $712.8 | $687.2 | -$25.6 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $236.88 | $248.83 | +$13.6 | 66% 4077-2095 (6172) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.2¢ | $40.61 | $42.61 | +$2 | — 7-12 (19) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 89.6¢ | $35.84 | $34.36 | -$1.48 | 41% 3063-4447 (7510) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $6.2 | $8.52 | +$2.32 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
HaradwaithInvested
$712.8
Value
$687.2
PnL
-$25.6
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
Invested
$236.88
Value
$248.83
PnL
+$13.6
Record
66%
4077-2095 (6172)
Invested
$40.61
Value
$42.61
PnL
+$2
Record
—
7-12 (19)
Invested
$35.84
Value
$34.36
PnL
-$1.48
Record
41%
3063-4447 (7510)
Invested
$6.2
Value
$8.52
PnL
+$2.32
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.