Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 31¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.6K
$1.6K
10.5¢ → 30.5¢
+190% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
1440h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO FolletinCTR | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $373.33 | $1.4K | +$1.0K | 69% 422-188 (610) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $316.74 | $922.72 | +$578.72 | 53% 1040-935 (1975) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 78.8¢ | $126.17 | $123.5 | -$2.67 | 36% 14106-25213 (39319) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $78.1 | $85.52 | +$2.76 | 50% 1057-1072 (2129) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $19.91 | $74.12 | +$33.63 | 36% 1994-3513 (5507) |
Invested
$373.33
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
69%
422-188 (610)
Invested
$316.74
Value
$922.72
PnL
+$578.72
Record
53%
1040-935 (1975)
Invested
$126.17
Value
$123.5
PnL
-$2.67
Record
36%
14106-25213 (39319)
Invested
$78.1
Value
$85.52
PnL
+$2.76
Record
50%
1057-1072 (2129)
Invested
$19.91
Value
$74.12
PnL
+$33.63
Record
36%
1994-3513 (5507)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.