Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
$1.2K
$177.09
61.2¢ → 97.7¢
+60% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 60.6¢ | $530.98 | $555.69 | +$24.71 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 vinii | Noavg 58.5¢ | $293.92 | $280 | +$69.99 | 74% 2716-975 (3691) |
 balthazar | Noavg 69.6¢ | $132.15 | $168.14 | +$35.99 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 48.7¢ | $48.67 | $88.5 | +$39.83 | 52% 4946-4559 (9505) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $31.24 | $46.91 | +$15.67 | 52% 2443-2243 (4686) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $25.92 | $24.01 | -$0.07 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
VA vamosgaming<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $10.32 | $11.42 | +$1.1 | 27% 199-533 (732) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.72 | $4.14 | +$3.42 | 18% 519-2318 (2837) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $9.92 | $2.72 | -$7.2 | 36% 2033-3638 (5671) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $14.57 | $0.24 | -$6.33 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
Invested
$530.98
Value
$555.69
PnL
+$24.71
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
viniiInvested
$293.92
Value
$280
PnL
+$69.99
Record
74%
2716-975 (3691)
balthazarInvested
$132.15
Value
$168.14
PnL
+$35.99
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
Invested
$48.67
Value
$88.5
PnL
+$39.83
Record
52%
4946-4559 (9505)
Invested
$31.24
Value
$46.91
PnL
+$15.67
Record
52%
2443-2243 (4686)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$25.92
Value
$24.01
PnL
-$0.07
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$11.42
PnL
+$1.1
Record
27%
199-533 (732)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.72
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$3.42
Record
18%
519-2318 (2837)
Invested
$9.92
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$7.2
Record
36%
2033-3638 (5671)
Invested
$14.57
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$6.33
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.