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6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $150 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$150.26
$4.52
87.5¢ → 91¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $67.21 | $71.58 | +$4.37 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27 | $27.3 | +$0.3 | 26% 860-2483 (3343) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18 | $18 | +$0 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $15.23 | $15.23 | +$0 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $13.8 | $13.65 | -$0.15 | 27% 105-283 (388) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $4.5 | +$0 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
Invested
$67.21
Value
$71.58
PnL
+$4.37
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$27
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
26%
860-2483 (3343)
Invested
$18
Value
$18
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1457-2158 (3615)
Invested
$15.23
Value
$15.23
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$13.65
PnL
-$0.15
Record
27%
105-283 (388)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.