Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of January 2027?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $144 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$144.12
$59.75
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
35 35066FE58feCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $45.21 | $53.66 | +$51.79 | 42% 627-850 (1477) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $43.68 | $43.68 | -$0 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $22.2 | $27.3 | +$5.1 | 49% 7454-7779 (15233) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $15.74 | $18.6 | +$2.86 | 53% 3176-2843 (6019) |
Invested
$45.21
Value
$53.66
PnL
+$51.79
Record
42%
627-850 (1477)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$43.68
Value
$43.68
PnL
-$0
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$27.3
PnL
+$5.1
Record
49%
7454-7779 (15233)
Invested
$15.74
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$2.86
Record
53%
3176-2843 (6019)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.