Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $108 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$107.6
-$1.2
64.7¢ → 64¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $20.4 | $19.2 | -$1.2 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $18.3 | $19.2 | +$0.9 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $20.1 | $19.2 | -$0.9 | 4% 17-366 (383) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.