Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$3.0K
-$180.96
84.7¢ → 88.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tourists | Noavg 85¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$74.95 | 66% 426-220 (646) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $630.94 | $511.46 | -$248.14 | 50% 390-393 (783) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 83.3¢ | $416.54 | $442.75 | +$26.2 | 60% 3216-2157 (5373) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $154.61 | $85.28 | -$46.47 | 36% 14556-26000 (40556) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $45 | $57.5 | +$12.5 | 67% 4131-1998 (6129) |
touristsInvested
$1,816.51
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$74.95
Record
66%
426-220 (646)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$630.94
Value
$511.46
PnL
-$248.14
Record
50%
390-393 (783)
Invested
$416.54
Value
$442.75
PnL
+$26.2
Record
60%
3216-2157 (5373)
Invested
$154.61
Value
$85.28
PnL
-$46.47
Record
36%
14556-26000 (40556)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$57.5
PnL
+$12.5
Record
67%
4131-1998 (6129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.