Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 20¢ · $193 held · ends Mar 15, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$192.62
-$59.34
25.5¢ → 20¢
-22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $155.43 | $106.24 | -$48.8 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $34.14 | $34.48 | +$0.34 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.1¢ | $33.69 | $27 | -$6.69 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $26.27 | $22.99 | -$3.27 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $2.82 | $1.9 | -$0.92 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$155.43
Value
$106.24
PnL
-$48.8
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$34.14
Value
$34.48
PnL
+$0.34
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$33.69
Value
$27
PnL
-$6.69
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Invested
$26.27
Value
$22.99
PnL
-$3.27
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.92
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.