Will Olli Rehn be the next President of the European Central Bank?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $397 held · ends Feb 8, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$397.37
-$7.66
99.4¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $98.98 | $97.58 | -$1.4 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.7¢ | $126.75 | $95.14 | -$1.68 | 47% 4825-5517 (10342) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.69 | $74.74 | +$0.05 | 26% 119-337 (456) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $131.54 | $58.67 | -$1.06 | 37% 3468-5986 (9454) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $59.18 | $58.35 | -$0.84 | 17% 94-450 (544) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $9.76 | -$0.14 | 30% 2961-6990 (9951) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.29 | $1.48 | +$1.19 | 12% 37-271 (308) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $10.21 | $1.1 | -$4.09 | 40% 3254-4905 (8159) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.19 | $0.5 | +$0.31 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.06 | $0.06 | +$0 | 29% 893-2183 (3076) |
Invested
$98.98
Value
$97.58
PnL
-$1.4
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
balthazarInvested
$126.75
Value
$95.14
PnL
-$1.68
Record
47%
4825-5517 (10342)
Invested
$74.69
Value
$74.74
PnL
+$0.05
Record
26%
119-337 (456)
LucerysInvested
$131.54
Value
$58.67
PnL
-$1.06
Record
37%
3468-5986 (9454)
Invested
$59.18
Value
$58.35
PnL
-$0.84
Record
17%
94-450 (544)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$0.14
Record
30%
2961-6990 (9951)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.29
Value
$1.48
PnL
+$1.19
Record
12%
37-271 (308)
Invested
$10.21
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$4.09
Record
40%
3254-4905 (8159)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.5
PnL
+$0.31
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
893-2183 (3076)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.