Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Oklahoma State win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $425 held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$424.68

Combined PnL

$330.53

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$390.39

Total Shares2,463

Combined PnL+$336.83

No1 trader

Total Value$34.29

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$6.3

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$12.3	$235.85	+$223.55	39% 1093-1684 (2777)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$92.44	$73.54	+$36.56	18% 855-3975 (4830)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$60.95	$34.95	+$32.7	35% 3858-7087 (10945)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$40.59	$34.29	-$6.3	36% 286-506 (792)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.19	$29.82	+$29.64	21% 22-81 (103)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.37	$7.13	+$6.76	17% 92-443 (535)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.25	$4.87	+$4.62	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.17	$3.17	+$3	53% 2063-1842 (3905)
CU CustomTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$1.06	$1.06	+$0	— 1-6 (7)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$12.3

Value

$235.85

PnL

+$223.55

Record

39%

1093-1684 (2777)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.44

Value

$73.54

PnL

+$36.56

Record

18%

855-3975 (4830)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.95

Value

$34.95

PnL

+$32.7

Record

35%

3858-7087 (10945)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$34.29

PnL

-$6.3

Record

36%

286-506 (792)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$29.64

Record

21%

22-81 (103)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$7.13

PnL

+$6.76

Record

17%

92-443 (535)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$4.62

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$3.17

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

CustomTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-6 (7)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6959.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7059.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.