Will Oklahoma Sooners win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $136 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$135.87
-$63.85
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
595h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.5¢ | $130.79 | $131.38 | +$0.59 | 53% 86-75 (161) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $45.29 | $2.95 | -$42.34 | 54% 115-99 (214) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $17.04 | $0.93 | -$16.11 | 0% 0-82 (82) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $4.63 | $0.5 | -$4.13 | — 0-3 (3) |
0X 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50ACTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $1.67 | $0.09 | -$1.58 | 0% 0-93 (93) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $0.3 | $0.02 | -$0.28 | 0% 0-35 (35) |
Invested
$130.79
Value
$131.38
PnL
+$0.59
Record
53%
86-75 (161)
Invested
$45.29
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$42.34
Record
54%
115-99 (214)
Invested
$17.04
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$16.11
Record
0%
0-82 (82)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$4.13
Record
—
0-3 (3)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$1.58
Record
0%
0-93 (93)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.28
Record
0%
0-35 (35)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.