Will Ohio State Buckeyes Win the 2026 Big Ten Championship?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $342 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$341.76
$47.85
66.6¢ → 92.3¢
+38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
45h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA Gaditima | Noavg 54.8¢ | $69.53 | $117.01 | +$47.48 | 48% 32-35 (67) |
AU auros2 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $67.34 | $106.76 | +$39.42 | — |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100 | Noavg 86.7¢ | $61.82 | $65.85 | +$4.03 | — 3-5 (8) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $45 | $41.51 | +$1.01 | 9% 4-39 (43) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.5¢ | $38.32 | $7.53 | -$30.79 | 53% 115-101 (216) |
 RobbbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $16.4 | $3.1 | -$13.3 | — |
Invested
$69.53
Value
$117.01
PnL
+$47.48
Record
48%
32-35 (67)
Invested
$67.34
Value
$106.76
PnL
+$39.42
Record
—
Invested
$61.82
Value
$65.85
PnL
+$4.03
Record
—
3-5 (8)
Invested
$45
Value
$41.51
PnL
+$1.01
Record
9%
4-39 (43)
Invested
$38.32
Value
$7.53
PnL
-$30.79
Record
53%
115-101 (216)
RobbbCTR<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$13.3
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.