Will Ohio (Special) be the closest Senate race in 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $208 held · ended Nov 4

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$208.34

Combined PnL

-$3.72

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 97¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$200.11

Total Shares194

Combined PnL-$0.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.23

Total Shares271

Combined PnL-$3.4

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$79.54	$59.31	-$15	45% 2415-2986 (5401)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 95¢	$60.85	$35.48	+$9.63	48% 8595-9145 (17740)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88.9¢	$26.67	$29.64	+$2.97	54% 22131-19228 (41359)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 93¢	$27.89	$29.12	+$1.22	51% 3511-3414 (6925)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$21.64	$22.32	+$0.68	38% 977-1591 (2568)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 97¢	$19.4	$19.4	+$0	30% 2167-5020 (7187)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$21.37	$7	-$4.37	35% 17632-33001 (50633)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 93¢	$2.79	$2.91	+$0.12	55% 4354-3545 (7899)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$1.89	$1.94	+$0.05	39% 989-1579 (2568)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$1.22	$1.22	+$0.97	25% 327-975 (1302)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Invested

$79.54

Value

$59.31

PnL

-$15

Record

45%

2415-2986 (5401)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$60.85

Value

$35.48

PnL

+$9.63

Record

48%

8595-9145 (17740)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$26.67

Value

$29.64

PnL

+$2.97

Record

54%

22131-19228 (41359)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$27.89

Value

$29.12

PnL

+$1.22

Record

51%

3511-3414 (6925)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$21.64

Value

$22.32

PnL

+$0.68

Record

38%

977-1591 (2568)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.4

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2167-5020 (7187)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.37

Value

PnL

-$4.37

Record

35%

17632-33001 (50633)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$0.12

Record

55%

4354-3545 (7899)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

989-1579 (2568)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.97

Record

25%

327-975 (1302)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.