Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$4.8K
-$444.91
75¢ → 67.5¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
792h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
20 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1N 1nvoker1 | Noavg 75¢ | $375 | $3.1K | -$37.88 | 61% 452-286 (738) |
 DebosnysCTR | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | -$384.51 | 89% 1892-227 (2119) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $161.67 | $166.48 | +$4.81 | 34% 19152-36682 (55834) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 74¢ | $104.9 | $94.97 | -$9.92 | 73% 3011-1098 (4109) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 74.3¢ | $213.03 | $42.32 | -$12.59 | 58% 21129-15368 (36497) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $31.7 | $17.04 | -$4.83 | 77% 12627-3871 (16498) |
Invested
$375
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$37.88
Record
61%
452-286 (738)
DebosnysCTRInvested
$1,806
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$384.51
Record
89%
1892-227 (2119)
Invested
$161.67
Value
$166.48
PnL
+$4.81
Record
34%
19152-36682 (55834)
Tenebrus7Invested
$104.9
Value
$94.97
PnL
-$9.92
Record
73%
3011-1098 (4109)
Invested
$213.03
Value
$42.32
PnL
-$12.59
Record
58%
21129-15368 (36497)
Invested
$31.7
Value
$17.04
PnL
-$4.83
Record
77%
12627-3871 (16498)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.