Will Ohio Bobcats Win the 2026 MAC Championship?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $850 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$850.49
-$12.9
80.6¢ → 82.3¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 81.4¢ | $489.47 | $490.56 | +$1.09 | — 0-11 (11) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.6¢ | $155.08 | $154.58 | -$0.51 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 22.2¢ | $109.71 | $90.98 | -$18.73 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $110.16 | $63.23 | +$5.25 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
AU auros2ARB<$100 | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $61.8 | $51.15 | -$5.82 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $34.25 | $26.56 | -$6.8 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.7¢ | $23.6 | $24.58 | +$0.98 |
Invested
$489.47
Value
$490.56
PnL
+$1.09
Record
—
0-11 (11)
Invested
$155.08
Value
$154.58
PnL
-$0.51
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$109.71
Value
$90.98
PnL
-$18.73
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$110.16
Value
$63.23
PnL
+$5.25
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$61.8
Value
$51.15
PnL
-$5.82
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.