Will Oded Forer be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $829 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$829.17
$2.49
99.6¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.9¢ | $208.79 | $208.79 | +$0 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $190.19 | $190.5 | +$0.31 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.9¢ | $124.88 | $124.88 | +$0 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $95.03 | $95.22 | +$0.2 | 50% 4491-4437 (8928) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.95 | +$0 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $37.94 | $39.96 | +$2.02 | 52% 5313-4817 (10130) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $37.7 | $37.81 | +$0.11 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.97 | +$0.03 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $13.94 | $13.99 | +$0.04 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $7.97 | $7.99 | +$0.02 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.38 | $0.14 | -$0.25 | 41% 3005-4412 (7417) |
Invested
$208.79
Value
$208.79
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Invested
$190.19
Value
$190.5
PnL
+$0.31
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$124.88
Value
$124.88
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
balthazar<$100Invested
$95.03
Value
$95.22
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
4491-4437 (8928)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.95
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
Invested
$37.94
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$2.02
Record
52%
5313-4817 (10130)
Invested
$37.7
Value
$37.81
PnL
+$0.11
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.03
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$13.94
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.04
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.97
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$0.38
Value
$0.14
PnL
-$0.25
Record
41%
3005-4412 (7417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.