Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.3K
-$643.49
72.1¢ → 56¢
-22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Noavg 74¢ | $1.7K | $1.3K | -$493.52 | 56% 45-35 (80) |
 wish- | Noavg 74.5¢ | $741.18 | $527.5 | -$213.68 | 79% 1167-318 (1485) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $302.18 | $283.64 | +$46.87 | 36% 15094-27222 (42316) |
 balthazar | Noavg 53¢ | $116.4 | $124.03 | +$7.63 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $72.47 | $75.83 | +$3.36 | 0% 0-28 (28) |
 AllByMyseIfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.21 | $8.08 | +$5.87 | 65% 669-356 (1025) |
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$1,705.93
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$493.52
Record
56%
45-35 (80)
wish-Invested
$741.18
Value
$527.5
PnL
-$213.68
Record
79%
1167-318 (1485)
Invested
$302.18
Value
$283.64
PnL
+$46.87
Record
36%
15094-27222 (42316)
balthazarInvested
$116.4
Value
$124.03
PnL
+$7.63
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
Invested
$72.47
Value
$75.83
PnL
+$3.36
Record
0%
0-28 (28)
AllByMyseIfCTR<$100Invested
$2.21
Value
$8.08
PnL
+$5.87
Record
65%
669-356 (1025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.