Will "Obsession" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
-$11.34
67.6¢ → 69¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 67.6¢ | $948.49 | $932.46 | -$16.03 | 60% 797-534 (1331) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.2¢ | $77.63 | $85.11 | +$7.48 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $34.67 | $34.99 | +$0.32 | 57% 12861-9776 (22637) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $45.94 | $12.82 | -$3.11 | 35% 273-515 (788) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $12.2 | $12.2 | +$0 | 50% 1633-1626 (3259) |
tetraseInvested
$948.49
Value
$932.46
PnL
-$16.03
Record
60%
797-534 (1331)
Invested
$77.63
Value
$85.11
PnL
+$7.48
Record
36%
14490-25940 (40430)
Invested
$34.67
Value
$34.99
PnL
+$0.32
Record
57%
12861-9776 (22637)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$45.94
Value
$12.82
PnL
-$3.11
Record
35%
273-515 (788)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$12.2
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1633-1626 (3259)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.