Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will NVIDIA's next CEO be an internal candidate?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 48¢ · $491 held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$491.05
$88.17
40.6¢ → 47.5¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $245.18 | $297.76 | +$52.59 | 60% 503-336 (839) |
 balthazar | Noavg 55.8¢ | $215.47 | $115.97 | +$22.31 | 46% 4905-5808 (10713) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $37.82 | $32.03 | -$5.8 | 8% 8-97 (105) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 52.8¢ | $111.77 | $30.87 | +$6.14 | 40% 3403-5074 (8477) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $56.07 | $8.28 | +$14.52 | 36% 3549-6234 (9783) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $7.73 | $6.13 | -$1.6 | 43% 10-13 (23) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$245.18
Value
$297.76
PnL
+$52.59
Record
60%
503-336 (839)
balthazarInvested
$215.47
Value
$115.97
PnL
+$22.31
Record
46%
4905-5808 (10713)
Invested
$37.82
Value
$32.03
PnL
-$5.8
Record
8%
8-97 (105)
Invested
$111.77
Value
$30.87
PnL
+$6.14
Record
40%
3403-5074 (8477)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$56.07
Value
$8.28
PnL
+$14.52
Record
36%
3549-6234 (9783)
Invested
$7.73
Value
$6.13
PnL
-$1.6
Record
43%
10-13 (23)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.