Will NVIDIA's next CEO be an external candidate?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2029

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Mon, Jan 1, 2029View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$367.77

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 52¢

+27% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,514

Combined PnL+$379.85

No5 traders

Total Value$266.03

Total Shares541

Combined PnL-$12.08

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
paddaa	Yesavg 37.9¢	$800	$1.2K	+$397.77	60% 503-336 (839)
LA Lajjhb	Yesavg 56.7¢	$226.85	$208	-$18.85	— 1-0 (1)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 42.9¢	$165.21	$105.6	+$35.27	46% 4905-5808 (10713)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$99.97	$69.33	-$30.64	43% 10-13 (23)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$62.85	$52.19	-$5.44	40% 3403-5074 (8477)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$41.57	$29.31	-$12.27	23% 514-1702 (2216)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$8.6	$9.6	+$1	65% 4220-2242 (6462)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$2.13	$0.93	+$0.93	31% 580-1274 (1854)

paddaa

Yes

Invested

$800

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$397.77

Record

60%

503-336 (839)

Lajjhb

Yes

Invested

$226.85

Value

$208

PnL

-$18.85

Record

—

1-0 (1)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$165.21

Value

$105.6

PnL

+$35.27

Record

46%

4905-5808 (10713)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$99.97

Value

$69.33

PnL

-$30.64

Record

43%

10-13 (23)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$62.85

Value

$52.19

PnL

-$5.44

Record

40%

3403-5074 (8477)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$41.57

Value

$29.31

PnL

-$12.27

Record

23%

514-1702 (2216)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$1

Record

65%

4220-2242 (6462)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.13

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.93

Record

31%

580-1274 (1854)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.0%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$85.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

185.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.