Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be less than $4.00T at the end of 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $205 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$205.14
$7.03
74.6¢ → 76.1¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.8¢ | $167.32 | $166.11 | -$1.21 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 53.3¢ | $15.99 | $22.83 | +$6.84 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $10.75 | $11.42 | +$0.67 | 49% 89-93 (182) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $4.04 | $4.78 | +$0.74 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
Invested
$167.32
Value
$166.11
PnL
-$1.21
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
Invested
$15.99
Value
$22.83
PnL
+$6.84
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$11.42
PnL
+$0.67
Record
49%
89-93 (182)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$4.78
PnL
+$0.74
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.