Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $6.00T and $6.50T at the end of 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $134 held · ends Dec 31

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$133.64

Combined PnL

-$21.74

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.6¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$132.78

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$9.34

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.86

Total Shares54

Combined PnL-$12.4

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$46.54	$40.16	-$6.37	40% 3242-4890 (8132)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$29.76	$29.52	-$0.24	26% 871-2505 (3376)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.84	$29.52	-$0.32	17% 93-449 (542)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$28.98	$28.65	-$0.29	27% 949-2550 (3499)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$22.04	$4.92	-$2.12	48% 124-136 (260)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$3.24	$0.36	-$2.88	5% 4-72 (76)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$1.16	$0.32	-$0.84	53% 6072-5438 (11510)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$1.33	$0.15	-$1.18	— 3-14 (17)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$58.21	$0.03	-$7.5	18% 81-367 (448)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$46.54

Value

$40.16

PnL

-$6.37

Record

40%

3242-4890 (8132)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.52

PnL

-$0.24

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.84

Value

$29.52

PnL

-$0.32

Record

17%

93-449 (542)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$28.98

Value

$28.65

PnL

-$0.29

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$22.04

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$2.12

Record

48%

124-136 (260)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$2.88

Record

4-72 (76)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

6072-5438 (11510)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.18

Record

—

3-14 (17)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.21

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$7.5

Record

18%

81-367 (448)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.